Voter Preference Assumptions:
- Rick Scott Support: 55% of Florida voters supported Rick Scott, an anti-abortion candidate.
- Abortion Rights Support: 57% of voters supported the abortion rights measure, which Rick Scott opposes.
- Expected Overlap: Assuming only 10% of Rick Scott’s supporters would also support abortion rights, given the conflicting policy stance.
Expected Overlap Calculations (Population: 11 million):
- Expected Rick Scott & Abortion Rights Support: 0.55×0.10×11,000,000=605,0000.55 \times 0.10 \times 11,000,000 = 605,0000.55×0.10×11,000,000=605,000 ⚠️ (Unlikely Alignment)
- Expected Rick Scott & Anti-Abortion Rights Support: 0.55×0.90×11,000,000=4,995,0000.55 \times 0.90 \times 11,000,000 = 4,995,0000.55×0.90×11,000,000=4,995,000
- Expected Opponent & Abortion Rights Support: 0.45×0.57×11,000,000=2,821,5000.45 \times 0.57 \times 11,000,000 = 2,821,5000.45×0.57×11,000,000=2,821,500 ⚠️ (Contradictory Preferences)
- Expected Opponent & Anti-Abortion Rights Support: 0.45×0.43×11,000,000=2,478,5000.45 \times 0.43 \times 11,000,000 = 2,478,5000.45×0.43×11,000,000=2,478,500
Chi-Square Test Results:
The statistical test assesses whether the observed overlap in support for both Rick Scott and abortion rights is likely under typical voting behavior.
- Chi-Square Statistic: 2,804,150.18 🔴 (Indicates High Irregularity)
- P-Value: 0.0 🚩 (Significant Statistical Anomaly)
Irregularity Summary:
- 🔴 Critical Irregularity: The p-value of 0.0 suggests a highly improbable overlap between support for Rick Scott and abortion rights under normal conditions.
- 🚩 Statistical Anomaly: This red flag indicates an unusual voter alignment, suggesting potential irregularities in the voting pattern that may require further examination.
Conclusion:
The analysis shows critical irregularities ⚠️ between Rick Scott’s support (anti-abortion) and high support for abortion rights. With both a 🔴 chi-square statistic and 🚩 p-value of 0.0, these findings suggest inconsistencies that do not align with expected voter behavior based on candidate policy alignment. Further investigation into the voting data is advised to validate these outcomes.